Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 211 | 06 | 428 |
| CAR | 313 | 110 | 110 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:56CARLogan StankovenAssists: Taylor Hall, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 6:41CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 16:30TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Scott Sabourin, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 17:05TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 1:58TBLDominic JamesAssists: Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 7:21CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 14:02TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 7:17CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:56CARSebastian Aho: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:34CARJackson Blake: Holding2 min
- P3 6:43TBLGage Goncalves: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stankoven won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Hagel – James10:22
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg9:24
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves11:22
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:21
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Hedman – Carlile5:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Moser17:14
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake11:55
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Robinson7:18
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:45
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers9:47
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield17:23
xG 0.73–0.63 (54%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Walker – Miller16:31
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 2–2
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin14:57
xG 0.44–0.68 (40%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).