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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:43Goal by Ehlers (Miller, Martinook)+12 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Staal, Martinook, Ehlers, Walker, Miller · TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Hagel, D'Astous, James

  3. P1 2:56Goal by Stankoven (Hall, Chatfield)+12 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Hall, Slavin, Chatfield, Stankoven, Blake · TBL Gourde, Raddysh, Hagel, D'Astous, Holmberg

  4. P1 3:30Shot by Raddysh, saved by Bussi
  5. P1 3:40Shot by Jarvis, saved by Johansson
  6. P1 4:11Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Johansson
  7. P1 5:17Shot by Moser, saved by Bussi
  8. P1 5:22Shot by Gourde, saved by Bussi
  9. P1 5:34Shot by Robinson, saved by Johansson
  10. P1 5:44Shot by Nikishin, saved by Johansson
  11. P1 6:41Goal by Hall (Blake, Stankoven)+9 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Hall, Slavin, Chatfield, Stankoven, Blake · TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser

  12. P1 8:31Shot by Guentzel, saved by Bussi
  13. P1 8:56Shot by Slavin, saved by Johansson
  14. P1 11:23Shot by Kucherov, saved by Bussi
  15. P1 12:52Shot by Jankowski, saved by Johansson
  16. P1 15:10Shot by Stankoven, saved by Johansson
  17. P1 15:20Shot by Gostisbehere, saved by Johansson
  18. P1 16:30Goal by Hagel (Sabourin, Guentzel)+8 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Jankowski, Carrier, Walker, Robinson, Miller · TBL McDonagh, Sabourin, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel

  19. P1 17:05Goal by Kucherov (Point, Moser)+13 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Staal, Martinook, Slavin, Ehlers, Chatfield · TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser

  20. P1 17:56Shot by Aho, saved by Johansson
  21. P1 18:02Shot by Gostisbehere, saved by Johansson
  22. P1 18:47Shot by James, saved by Bussi
  23. P1 18:49Shot by James, saved by Bussi
  24. P1 19:24Shot by Cernak, saved by Bussi
  25. P1 19:31Shot by Cernak, saved by Bussi
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:25Shot by Goncalves, saved by Bussi
  29. P2 1:58Goal by James (Guentzel, McDonagh)+21 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Ehlers, Walker, Miller, Stankoven, Blake · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel, James

  30. P2 2:47Shot by Nikishin, saved by Johansson
  31. P2 3:58Shot by Goncalves, saved by Bussi
  32. P2 4:58Shot by Guentzel, saved by Bussi
  33. P2 7:21Goal by Jarvis (Svechnikov, Jankowski)+23 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Jankowski, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis · TBL Gourde, Girgensons, Sabourin, D'Astous, Carlile

  34. P2 9:11Shot by Martinook, saved by Johansson
  35. P2 10:03Shot by Gourde, saved by Bussi
  36. P2 10:53Shot by Carrier, saved by Johansson
  37. P2 13:13Shot by Raddysh, saved by Bussi
  38. P2 13:23Shot by Moser, saved by Bussi
  39. P2 13:56Aho: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Slavin, Aho, Chatfield, Svechnikov, Jarvis · TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser

  40. P2 14:02Goal by Point (Guentzel, Raddysh)4v5+25 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Staal, Martinook, Slavin, Chatfield · TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh

  41. P2 14:36Shot by Miller, saved by Johansson
  42. P2 14:48Shot by Nikishin, saved by Johansson
  43. P2 15:14Shot by Gourde, saved by Bussi
  44. P2 15:33Kucherov: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Aho, Walker, Miller, Svechnikov, Jarvis · TBL Kucherov, Point, Raddysh, Goncalves, Moser

  45. P2 16:03Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Johansson5v4
  46. P2 16:15Shot by Ehlers, saved by Johansson5v4
  47. P2 16:24Shot by Guentzel, saved by Bussi5v4
  48. P2 16:35Shot by Aho, saved by Johansson5v4
  49. P2 16:54Shot by Nikishin, saved by Johansson5v4
  50. P2 19:02Shot by Holmberg, saved by Bussi
  51. P2 0:00Period end
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 1:15Shot by Ehlers, saved by Johansson
  54. P3 2:34Blake: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Hall, Gostisbehere, Nikishin, Stankoven, Blake · TBL Sabourin, Bjorkstrand, Raddysh, Holmberg, Moser

  55. P3 4:15Shot by Guentzel, saved by Bussi4v5
  56. P3 4:57Shot by Carrier, saved by Johansson
  57. P3 6:43Goncalves: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Hall, Walker, Miller, Stankoven, Blake · TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Hagel, Goncalves, James

  58. P3 7:04Shot by Jarvis, saved by Johansson5v4
  59. P3 7:17Goal by Aho (Jarvis, Svechnikov)5v4+31 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Staal, Gostisbehere, Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel

  60. P3 8:35Shot by Slavin, saved by Johansson
  61. P3 10:38Shot by Hall, saved by Johansson
  62. P3 11:28Shot by Raddysh, saved by Bussi
  63. P3 11:55Shot by Robinson, saved by Johansson
  64. P3 12:34Shot by Svechnikov, saved by Johansson
  65. P3 12:45Shot by Staal, saved by Johansson
  66. P3 13:34Shot by Hagel, saved by Bussi
  67. P3 14:16Shot by Blake, saved by Johansson
  68. P3 17:10Shot by Point, saved by Bussi5v6
  69. P3 17:14Shot by Raddysh, saved by Bussi5v6
  70. P3 18:39Shot by James, saved by Bussi5v6
  71. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  72. P3 0:00Final5v6