Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
35%
8%
8%
48%
CAR winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 26:01 | 0.16 | 42.5% | +24.9 |
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:07 | 0.29 | 51.8% | +13.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:06 | 0.64 | 51.5% | +37.9 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 22:03 | 0.66 | 73.9% | +53.9 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:42 | 0.16 | 65.5% | +8.2 |
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:42 | 0.02 | 55.1% | +13.0 |
 Dominic JamesC · #17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:55 | 0.61 | 73.9% | +20.8 |
 Yanni GourdeC · #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 16:04 | 0.19 | 38.0% | 0.0 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 0.16 | 74.8% | +20.8 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:26 | 0.08 | 72.8% | 0.0 |
 Gage GoncalvesC · #93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 | 0.04 | 40.1% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0.00 | 46.5% | 0.0 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0.00 | 46.0% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 14:01 | 0.24 | 50.5% | 0.0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 0 | 13:19 | 0.00 | 19.9% | 0.0 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandRW · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0.06 | 63.7% | 0.0 |
 Declan CarlileD · #67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0.02 | 48.1% | 0.0 |
 Scott SabourinRW · #46 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:00 | 0.00 | 22.9% | +8.2 |
 Jonas Johansson#31 | L | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 2.35 | −2.6 | 57:03 |
Carolina Hurricanes
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Jaccob SlavinD · #74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:31 | 0.01 | 52.5% | 0.0 |
 K'Andre MillerD · #19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:42 | 0.03 | 42.0% | +11.7 |
 Jalen ChatfieldD · #5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0.00 | 53.8% | +11.5 |
 Sebastian AhoC · #20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:43 | 0.24 | 34.3% | +31.4 |
 Shayne GostisbehereD · #4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:45 | 0.03 | 44.9% | 0.0 |
 Andrei SvechnikovRW · #37 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 18:36 | 0.81 | 51.0% | +54.9 |
 Seth JarvisRW · #24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 18:21 | 0.29 | 48.2% | +54.9 |
 Sean WalkerD · #26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0.00 | 36.9% | 0.0 |
 Jackson BlakeRW · #53 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 17:48 | 0.04 | 45.2% | +8.6 |
 Alexander NikishinD · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:13 | 0.19 | 41.7% | 0.0 |
 Logan StankovenC · #22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:02 | 0.32 | 54.8% | +20.2 |
 Taylor HallLW · #71 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 16:01 | 0.23 | 59.6% | +20.2 |
 Jordan StaalC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:19 | 0.11 | 37.3% | 0.0 |
 Nikolaj EhlersLW · #27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 3 | 14:58 | 0.22 | 20.1% | +11.7 |
 Jordan MartinookLW · #48 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14:31 | 0.00 | 27.0% | +11.7 |
 William CarrierLW · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 9:50 | 0.25 | 49.3% | 0.0 |
 Mark JankowskiLW · #77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:45 | 0.09 | 49.1% | +23.5 |
 Eric RobinsonLW · #50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 9:20 | 0.11 | 60.8% | 0.0 |
 Brandon Bussi#32 | W | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 3.32 | −0.7 | 60:00 |