Mon, Mar 16, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 112 | 04 | 227 |
| DET | 08 | 410 | 17 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Matvei Gridin, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:03DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:06DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Albert Johansson, Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 6:37DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 7:23CGYMatt CoronatoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 11:45DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:55DETDominik ShineENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.81 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:50CGYHunter Brzustewicz: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:28DETDominik Shine: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:28CGYMartin Pospisil: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:34CGYZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:52DETMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:52DETMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:52CGYConnor Zary: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:41CGYMatvei Gridin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min
- P2 19:58CGYConnor Zary: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:08DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P3 7:08CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Finnie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin10:40
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Lomberg – Pospisil – Zary7:10
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee9:22
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich9:05
xG 0.02–0.40 (6%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh8:03
xG 0.35–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl12:38
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Bahl – Parekh2:37
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat12:38
xG 1.10–0.78 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Perron – Raymond – Finnie10:35
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Leonard – Kasper7:36
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Appleton – Shine – Dries6:02
xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson12:48
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Chiarot – Faulk16:16
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson13:36
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).