Thu, Mar 19, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 111 | 11 | 219 |
| OTT | 07 | 19 | 211 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Ryan Pulock, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 10:27OTTShane PintoSHAssists: Tyler Kleven, Nikolas Matinpalo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 2:02NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Scott Mayfield · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:12OTTWarren FoegeleAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Dennis Gilbert · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 19:47OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Jordan Spence, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:01OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54NYIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:32OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:11NYICarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:55OTTNick Cousins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:50OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:13NYIBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P2 17:06OTTLars Eller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greig won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Palat – MacLean7:00
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Duclair – Holmstrom5:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (2%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman13:10
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Ritchie7:24
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:11
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Soucy – DeAngelo2:15
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo14:51
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig7:53
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:10
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle6:23
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund4:41
xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence5:11
xG 0.66–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven14:09
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Matinpalo7:37
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).