Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 210 | 06 | 321 |
| DET | 010 | 110 | 115 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Carter Yakemchuk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:28OTTCarter YakemchukAssists: Artem Zub · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:05OTTLars EllerGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:50DETDominik ShineAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 4:13DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:32OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:38DETMason Appleton: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26OTTJordan Spence: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:36DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:39OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:54OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P3 19:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51OTTArtem Zub: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:51DETAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig10:19
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:51
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund6:45
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:49
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Yakemchuk4:13
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven3:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zub – Yakemchuk2:12
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat4:18
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Appleton2:58
xG 0.01–0.01 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Kasper3:39
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Kasper2:40
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:23
xG 0.04–0.33 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson16:54
xG 0.62–0.91 (40%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Faulk15:32
xG 0.43–0.91 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).