Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 12 | 114 | 19 | 325 |
| DET | 213 | 212 | 111 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Ridly Greig · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:16DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Nate Danielson, Carter Mazur · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 13:14DETDylan LarkinAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 2:01DETViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 4:30DETJustin FaulkGWGAssists: William Wallinder, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 6:08OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: William Eklund, Carter Yakemchuk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 10:30OTTWilliam EklundAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:10DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Lucas Raymond, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 7:18DETMoritz Seider: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:01OTTNick Cousins: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:15DETAndrew Copp: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:48OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:55DETAnton Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:51OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00DETAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:20OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:37DETKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:17OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Batherson – Stützle – Eklund3:34
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Cozens – Eklund4:55
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Cozens – Greig2:16
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Batherson – Greig – Stützle3:04
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Yakemchuk6:02
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo2:33
xG 0.01–0.01 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Crotty – Matinpalo9:15
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Finnie – Brandsegg-Nygård8:21
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Larkin – Arvidsson – Raymond9:16
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 18–10goals 1–2
- Copp – Kolesar – Rasmussen10:09
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Wallinder5:23
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Faulk – Johansson5:41
xG 0.34–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka2:15
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).