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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:41Shot by Finnie, saved by Ersson
  3. P1 2:44Goal by Stützle (Batherson, Greig)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, Arvidsson, Raymond, Sandin-Pellikka · OTT Chabot, Crotty, Batherson, Greig, Stützle

  4. P1 3:08Shot by Faulk, saved by Ersson
  5. P1 3:11Shot by Mazur, saved by Ersson
  6. P1 3:16Goal by DeBrincat (Danielson, Mazur)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Faulk, DeBrincat, Wallinder, Mazur, Danielson · OTT Cousins, Foegele, Kleven, Halliday, Yakemchuk

  7. P1 4:22Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Ersson
  8. P1 5:25Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson
  9. P1 5:39Shot by Faulk, saved by Ersson
  10. P1 7:18Seider: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Rasmussen, Johansson, Mazur, Danielson, Sandin-Pellikka · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Pinto, Spence, Stützle, Eklund

  11. P1 8:00Shot by Cozens, saved by Gibson4v5
  12. P1 11:01Cousins: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Arvidsson, Seider, Raymond, Danielson · OTT Cousins, Chabot, Batherson, Stützle, Yakemchuk

  13. P1 11:54Shot by Arvidsson, saved by Ersson5v4
  14. P1 12:27Shot by Seider, saved by Ersson5v4
  15. P1 13:14Goal by Larkin (Arvidsson, DeBrincat)+18 pts WP

    On ice: DET Faulk, Larkin, Arvidsson, DeBrincat, Johansson · OTT Cousins, Amadio, Chabot, Spence, Stützle

  16. P1 14:15Copp: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Kolesar, Sandin-Pellikka, Brandsegg-Nygård · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Cozens, Kleven, Yakemchuk

  17. P1 14:47Shot by Finnie, saved by Ersson4v5
  18. P1 16:34Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson
  19. P1 18:44Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson
  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 0:48Matinpalo: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: DET Faulk, Copp, Larkin, Rasmussen, Johansson, Brandsegg-Nygård · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Crotty, Pinto, Matinpalo

  23. P2 1:13Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson5v4
  24. P2 1:36Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson5v4
  25. P2 1:59Shot by Larkin, saved by Ersson5v4
  26. P2 2:01Goal by Arvidsson (Larkin, Raymond)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: DET Larkin, Arvidsson, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · OTT Pinto, Spence, Greig, Kleven

  27. P2 2:11Shot by Eklund, saved by Gibson
  28. P2 2:32Shot by Danielson, saved by Ersson
  29. P2 4:06Shot by Kolesar, saved by Ersson
  30. P2 4:30Goal by Faulk (Wallinder, Raymond)+7 pts WP

    On ice: DET Faulk, Larkin, Arvidsson, Raymond, Wallinder · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Spence, Greig, Stützle

  31. P2 5:07Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson
  32. P2 5:18Shot by Eklund, saved by Gibson
  33. P2 5:53Shot by Spence, saved by Gibson5v6
  34. P2 5:55Johansson: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Chiarot, DeBrincat, Johansson, Finnie, Brandsegg-Nygård · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Cozens, Spence, Stützle, Eklund

  35. P2 6:08Goal by Batherson (Eklund, Yakemchuk)4v5+7 pts WP

    On ice: DET Copp, Rasmussen, Seider, Johansson · OTT Batherson, Cozens, Stützle, Eklund, Yakemchuk

  36. P2 7:48Shot by Kleven, saved by Gibson
  37. P2 7:58Shot by Yakemchuk, saved by Gibson
  38. P2 8:19Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  39. P2 10:44Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  40. P2 11:38Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  41. P2 12:28Shot by Larkin, saved by Ersson
  42. P2 13:12Shot by Chabot, saved by Gibson
  43. P2 15:08Shot by Sandin-Pellikka, saved by Ersson
  44. P2 15:51Batherson: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Arvidsson, Seider, Johansson, Raymond · OTT Batherson, Cozens, Greig, Kleven, Matinpalo

  45. P2 16:54Shot by Seider, saved by Ersson5v4
  46. P2 17:02Shot by Greig, saved by Gibson5v4
  47. P2 18:14Shot by Chiarot, saved by Ersson
  48. P2 18:32Shot by Halliday, saved by Gibson
  49. P2 19:08Shot by Kleven, saved by Gibson
  50. P2 19:14Shot by Johansson, saved by Ersson
  51. P2 0:00DeBrincat: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  52. P2 0:00DeBrincat: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  53. P2 0:00Pinto: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  54. P2 0:00Pinto: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  55. P2 0:00Chiarot: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  56. P2 0:00Chiarot: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  57. P2 0:00Greig: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  58. P2 0:00Greig: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  59. P2 0:00Larkin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Finnie · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Greig

  60. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 1:23Shot by Yakemchuk, saved by Gibson4v5
  63. P3 2:34Shot by Raymond, saved by Ersson
  64. P3 3:02Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Gibson
  65. P3 3:21Shot by Johansson, saved by Ersson
  66. P3 5:16Shot by Arvidsson, saved by Ersson
  67. P3 5:41Shot by Johansson, saved by Ersson
  68. P3 6:14Shot by Greig, saved by Gibson
  69. P3 6:20Greig: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Copp, Kolesar, Rasmussen, Seider, Wallinder · OTT Crotty, Pinto, Greig, Halliday, Matinpalo

  70. P3 8:03Shot by Copp, saved by Ersson5v4
  71. P3 9:15Shot by Brandsegg-Nygård, saved by Ersson
  72. P3 10:02Shot by Larkin, saved by Ersson
  73. P3 10:30Goal by Eklund (Zetterlund, Stützle)+11 pts WP

    On ice: DET Larkin, Arvidsson, Seider, Johansson, Raymond · OTT Chabot, Zetterlund, Spence, Stützle, Eklund

  74. P3 10:42Shot by Copp, saved by Ersson
  75. P3 11:53Shot by Batherson, saved by Gibson
  76. P3 14:42Shot by Seider, saved by Ersson
  77. P3 15:32Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Gibson5v6
  78. P3 15:37Kolesar: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Kolesar, Rasmussen, Johansson · OTT Zetterlund, Pinto, Greig, Kleven, Stützle, Matinpalo

  79. P3 15:49Shot by Stützle, saved by Gibson4v5
  80. P3 16:17Shot by Copp, saved by Ersson4v5
  81. P3 17:11Shot by Pinto, saved by Gibson4v5
  82. P3 18:17Batherson: Interference (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Faulk, Copp, DeBrincat, Rasmussen, Johansson · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Batherson, Pinto, Stützle, Eklund

  83. P3 19:10Goal by DeBrincat (Raymond, Faulk)+3 pts WP

    On ice: DET Faulk, Copp, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · OTT Chabot, Cozens, Spence, Stützle, Eklund

  84. P3 19:42Shot by Halliday, saved by Gibson5v6
  85. P3 0:00Period end
  86. P3 0:00Final