Sat, Mar 4, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
31%
11%
9%
48%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Killorn–Drouin–Point | Johnson–Palat–Kucherov | Namestnikov–Paquette–Erne | Dumont–Brown–Paquette | Johnson–Palat–Drouin | Stralman–Garrison | Hedman–Dotchin | Coburn–Sustr | Coburn–Witkowski | Garrison–Sustr | Stralman–Hedman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gionta–O'Reilly–Kane | 1:310.00–0.06 | 7:570.35–0.30 | 0:550.00–0.07 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 2:420.13–0.01 | 6:200.19–0.30 | 1:200.00–0.06 | 0:500.02–0.00 | |||
| Foligno–Reinhart–Eichel | 6:320.20–0.06 | 2:520.07–0.04 | 0:470.01–0.00 | 3:560.01–0.11 | 2:200.00–0.04 | 2:360.07–0.05 | 1:230.04–0.00 | ||||
| Moulson–Ennis–Rodrigues | 2:460.01–0.03 | 1:400.03–0.11 | 2:010.02–0.00 | 2:020.01–0.03 | 2:560.01–0.11 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:500.02–0.00 | ||||
| Deslauriers–Girgensons–Bailey | 1:090.00–0.01 | 1:030.00–0.06 | 1:290.00–0.00 | 2:270.01–0.06 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.01 | |||||
| Gionta–Kane–Eichel | 0:550.15–0.17 | 1:160.16–0.30 | |||||||||
| Deslauriers–Reinhart–Eichel | 0:320.00–0.08 | ||||||||||
| O'Reilly–Kane–Eichel | 0:420.01–0.05 | 1:010.01–0.05 | |||||||||
| McCabe–Ristolainen | 3:030.17–0.10 | 5:340.51–0.15 | 0:560.07–0.02 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 3:450.04–0.11 | 4:400.47–0.04 | 2:100.07–0.06 | 0:420.00–0.00 | |||
| Gorges–Franson | 0:370.04–0.00 | 1:430.03–0.13 | 2:590.02–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 2:230.01–0.13 | 2:320.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:400.02–0.00 | |||
| Bogosian–Ristolainen | 1:350.00–0.00 | 2:190.18–0.29 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 3:050.18–0.29 | 0:480.00–0.00 | |||||
| Gorges–Bogosian | 3:010.05–0.02 | 0:420.00–0.07 | 1:180.00–0.00 | 1:220.00–0.04 | 1:160.05–0.02 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:400.03–0.00 | ||||
| Franson–McCabe | 0:550.00–0.03 | 1:170.02–0.03 | 1:190.00–0.04 | 1:550.04–0.04 | 0:490.02–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.05 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||
| Bogosian–Kulikov | 2:470.00–0.01 | 0:580.02–0.00 | 1:340.02–0.00 | 1:200.00–0.01 | |||||||
| Gorges–Ristolainen | 1:340.00–0.08 | 0:390.00–0.11 | 0:470.00–0.07 | 0:540.00–0.08 | |||||||
| Franson–Bogosian | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:400.11–0.00 | 1:360.15–0.17 | 1:470.26–0.17 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||
| Bogosian–McCabe | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Franson–Kulikov | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus RistolainenBUF | 34 | 33:13 | 0:59 | 2:09 | 7 | 5 |
 Jason GarrisonTBL | 27 | 25:02 | 0:56 | 1:56 | 1 | 7 |
 Jonathan DrouinTBL | 24 | 24:22 | 1:01 | 2:26 | 4 | 2 |
 Jake McCabeBUF | 29 | 24:08 | 0:50 | 2:08 | 3 | 2 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 27 | 23:47 | 0:53 | 2:12 | 7 | 3 |
 Anton StralmanTBL | 29 | 23:36 | 0:49 | 1:35 | 1 | 6 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 26 | 23:15 | 0:54 | 2:28 | 7 | 5 |
 Jack EichelBUF | 22 | 23:10 | 1:03 | 1:43 | 6 | 1 |
 Ryan O'ReillyBUF | 27 | 23:08 | 0:51 | 2:14 | 6 | 4 |
 Zach BogosianBUF | 27 | 22:36 | 0:50 | 1:55 | 2 | 3 |
 Evander KaneBUF | 27 | 22:31 | 0:50 | 1:16 | 7 | 4 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 26 | 22:07 | 0:51 | 2:14 | 6 | 3 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 25 | 21:37 | 0:52 | 2:44 | 8 | 1 |
 Sam ReinhartBUF | 21 | 21:22 | 1:01 | 1:36 | 6 | 1 |
 Josh GorgesBUF | 27 | 20:32 | 0:46 | 2:09 | 5 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 22 | 19:53 | 0:54 | 1:39 | 3 | 2 |
 Cody FransonBUF | 21 | 19:36 | 0:56 | 1:30 | 5 | 1 |
 Jake DotchinTBL | 23 | 18:18 | 0:48 | 1:23 | 8 | 2 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 22 | 18:07 | 0:49 | 1:39 | 3 | 2 |
 Braydon CoburnTBL | 22 | 16:48 | 0:46 | 1:41 | 0 | 2 |
 Brian GiontaBUF | 22 | 16:36 | 0:45 | 1:16 | 3 | 3 |
 Marcus FolignoBUF | 19 | 16:04 | 0:51 | 1:28 | 3 | 2 |
 Vladislav NamestnikovTBL | 20 | 14:06 | 0:42 | 1:09 | 1 | 4 |
 Evan RodriguesBUF | 15 | 14:03 | 0:56 | 1:24 | 2 | 0 |
 Cedric PaquetteTBL | 20 | 13:42 | 0:41 | 1:29 | 0 | 7 |
 Andrej SustrTBL | 20 | 12:40 | 0:38 | 1:02 | 0 | 3 |
 Matt MoulsonBUF | 15 | 12:37 | 0:50 | 1:07 | 2 | 1 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 14 | 12:32 | 0:54 | 1:23 | 2 | 1 |
 Adam ErneTBL | 17 | 11:32 | 0:41 | 1:09 | 1 | 5 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 17 | 11:20 | 0:40 | 1:23 | 3 | 1 |
 Luke WitkowskiTBL | 15 | 9:51 | 0:39 | 1:01 | 1 | 1 |
 Nicolas DeslauriersBUF | 11 | 8:50 | 0:48 | 1:24 | 2 | 0 |
 JT BrownTBL | 14 | 8:12 | 0:35 | 1:06 | 0 | 3 |
 Gabriel DumontTBL | 13 | 8:03 | 0:37 | 1:17 | 1 | 3 |
 Justin BaileyBUF | 12 | 7:11 | 0:36 | 1:14 | 3 | 0 |
 Dmitry KulikovBUF | 7 | 5:39 | 0:48 | 1:09 | 0 | 0 |