Tue, Oct 17, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
41%
9%
43%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kucherov–Point–Barré-Boulet | Kucherov–Point–Hagel | Cirelli–Hagel–Jeannot | Watson–Glendening–Merela | Paul–Sheary–Eyssimont | Cirelli–Eyssimont–Jeannot | Paul–Sheary–Barré-Boulet | Kucherov–Point–Cirelli | Hagel–Jeannot–Barré-Boulet | Raddysh–Sergachev | Hedman–Cernak | Bogosian–Perbix | Hedman–Perbix | Hedman–Raddysh | Raddysh–Cernak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skinner–Tuch–Thompson | 2:350.27–0.00 | 1:550.05–0.28 | 0:390.03–0.00 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 0:380.01–0.00 | 1:340.00–0.32 | 0:410.00–0.07 | 4:420.51–0.43 | 5:330.13–0.24 | 0:370.14–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | ||||
| Greenway–Mittelstadt–Benson | 1:110.00–0.10 | 2:130.10–0.00 | 1:290.00–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.06 | 1:340.10–0.05 | 4:000.16–0.10 | 1:270.00–0.07 | 2:250.05–0.11 | |||||||
| Krebs–Cozens–Peterka | 0:470.00–0.00 | 1:450.00–0.17 | 2:090.00–0.00 | 0:440.01–0.05 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 1:020.00–0.00 | 1:330.01–0.00 | 3:270.00–0.17 | 0:450.00–0.05 | ||||||
| Okposo–Girgensons–Jost | 1:270.00–0.11 | 1:440.10–0.01 | 0:570.16–0.02 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 2:580.25–0.02 | 1:090.00–0.11 | 1:000.09–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Mittelstadt–Peterka–Benson | 0:540.00–0.02 | 0:430.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 2:090.00–0.03 | 4:110.10–0.23 | 1:250.00–0.32 | 4:410.22–0.32 | 3:550.00–0.26 | ||||||||||
| Jokiharju–Power | 1:060.00–0.08 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:200.03–0.02 | 0:420.01–0.02 | 2:320.06–0.00 | 2:160.18–0.02 | 1:170.05–0.00 | 3:120.17–0.01 | 1:120.00–0.00 | |||||
| Johnson–Clifton | 1:130.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:440.15–0.05 | 0:380.03–0.05 | 1:250.14–0.00 | 0:510.01–0.00 | 2:240.03–0.05 | 1:010.12–0.05 | |||||||
| Clifton–Power | 2:130.00–0.16 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:480.00–0.00 | 1:170.00–0.08 | |||||||||||
| Jokiharju–Dahlin | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:010.01–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Johnson–Dahlin | 1:010.00–0.05 | 0:390.03–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.06 | 0:440.00–0.10 | 1:260.03–0.06 | 0:310.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Clifton–Dahlin | 1:030.27–0.00 | 0:370.10–0.00 | 1:160.37–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Johnson–Power | 0:530.00–0.05 | 0:340.00–0.01 | 0:410.00–0.06 | ||||||||||||
| Clifton–Samuelsson | 0:370.00–0.11 | ||||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Power |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Victor HedmanTBL | 32 | 28:19 | 0:53 | 1:53 | 5 | 9 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 27 | 26:26 | 0:59 | 2:21 | 9 | 3 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 28 | 26:26 | 0:57 | 2:07 | 12 | 1 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 27 | 25:57 | 0:58 | 2:27 | 8 | 3 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 31 | 25:54 | 0:50 | 3:00 | 4 | 9 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 26 | 23:06 | 0:53 | 2:28 | 9 | 0 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 30 | 22:51 | 0:46 | 1:46 | 3 | 3 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 26 | 21:51 | 0:50 | 1:28 | 5 | 6 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 25 | 19:54 | 0:48 | 1:33 | 4 | 5 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 22 | 19:48 | 0:54 | 1:28 | 4 | 4 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 21 | 18:27 | 0:53 | 1:30 | 5 | 3 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 24 | 18:02 | 0:45 | 1:28 | 3 | 7 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 23 | 18:00 | 0:47 | 1:46 | 4 | 6 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 26 | 17:57 | 0:41 | 1:43 | 4 | 8 |
 Erik JohnsonBUF | 24 | 17:45 | 0:44 | 1:31 | 2 | 6 |
 Connor CliftonBUF | 24 | 17:45 | 0:44 | 2:28 | 1 | 5 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 19 | 17:36 | 0:56 | 1:55 | 2 | 7 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 23 | 16:58 | 0:44 | 1:20 | 3 | 7 |
 Alex Barré-BouletTBL | 21 | 16:57 | 0:48 | 1:19 | 4 | 1 |
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 22 | 15:45 | 0:43 | 1:14 | 0 | 1 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 19 | 15:38 | 0:49 | 2:02 | 4 | 1 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 17 | 15:00 | 0:53 | 1:37 | 4 | 1 |
 Tanner JeannotTBL | 19 | 14:44 | 0:47 | 1:29 | 1 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 22 | 14:30 | 0:40 | 1:12 | 6 | 7 |
 Conor ShearyTBL | 18 | 12:53 | 0:43 | 2:03 | 2 | 0 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 14 | 12:33 | 0:54 | 1:46 | 6 | 0 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 17 | 12:27 | 0:44 | 1:17 | 0 | 1 |
 Zach BogosianTBL | 17 | 11:37 | 0:41 | 1:19 | 0 | 2 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 15 | 11:36 | 0:46 | 1:27 | 6 | 0 |
 Tyson JostBUF | 17 | 11:24 | 0:40 | 1:19 | 0 | 1 |
 Michael EyssimontTBL | 17 | 10:34 | 0:37 | 1:15 | 2 | 1 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 19 | 10:24 | 0:33 | 1:23 | 1 | 3 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 15 | 9:11 | 0:37 | 1:18 | 1 | 3 |
 Luke GlendeningTBL | 16 | 9:03 | 0:34 | 1:10 | 2 | 3 |
 Waltteri MerelaTBL | 8 | 5:49 | 0:44 | 1:02 | 0 | 1 |
 Austin WatsonTBL | 9 | 5:04 | 0:34 | 1:00 | 0 | 1 |