Sat, Jan 20, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 88% of the time.
84%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Paul–Cirelli–Hagel | Stamkos–Kucherov–Point | Motte–Sheary–Eyssimont | Watson–Glendening–Merela | Glendening–Motte–Merela | Hedman–Raddysh | de Haan–Perbix | Crozier–Lilleberg | de Haan–Raddysh | Hedman–Crozier | Hedman–Perbix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okposo–Olofsson–Krebs | 1:490.00–0.00 | 1:470.01–0.01 | 1:200.00–0.00 | 3:230.10–0.07 | 1:430.09–0.00 | 2:370.00–0.00 | |||||
| Cozens–Quinn–Peterka | 2:290.00–0.08 | 0:550.16–0.00 | 2:520.05–0.01 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 2:530.05–0.01 | 2:160.16–0.00 | |||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Mittelstadt | 2:170.02–0.06 | 1:290.00–0.00 | 1:190.13–0.00 | 0:330.14–0.00 | 3:010.28–0.00 | 1:360.01–0.06 | 1:130.01–0.00 | ||||
| Tuch–Thompson–Benson | 2:500.03–0.24 | 0:320.03–0.05 | 0:370.03–0.00 | 1:000.02–0.00 | 2:220.03–0.24 | 2:100.03–0.24 | 0:550.05–0.00 | ||||
| Girgensons–Greenway–Quinn | 1:280.04–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:440.02–0.00 | 1:320.04–0.00 | 1:460.04–0.00 | ||||||
| Mittelstadt–Cozens–Peterka | 0:320.00–0.10 | 1:370.16–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.00 | 1:360.10–0.10 | 0:530.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:370.06–0.00 | ||||
| Girgensons–Greenway–Benson | 0:530.00–0.00 | 1:320.00–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Girgensons–Greenway–Mittelstadt | 1:200.00–0.12 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.12 | ||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 1:400.00–0.23 | 6:450.25–0.16 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 4:410.05–0.32 | 1:400.00–0.00 | 3:110.16–0.12 | 0:350.06–0.00 | ||||
| Dahlin–Power | 2:320.09–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.05 | 0:420.07–0.00 | 0:460.06–0.00 | 3:390.09–0.00 | 1:530.08–0.05 | 1:070.05–0.03 | ||||
| Clifton–Jokiharju | 1:400.00–0.01 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 2:120.01–0.01 | 2:260.00–0.02 | 2:170.01–0.19 | 0:470.00–0.00 | |||||
| Johnson–Power | 1:110.00–0.16 | 1:450.00–0.01 | 0:430.02–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.10 | 3:280.04–0.11 | 1:050.00–0.00 | |||||
| Jokiharju–Power | 2:270.02–0.00 | 2:280.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Dahlin–Johnson | 1:140.00–0.00 | 1:000.09–0.00 | 1:180.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Clifton–Johnson | 1:130.12–0.00 | 0:360.22–0.00 | 0:340.07–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Jokiharju–Dahlin | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.01 | 0:480.00–0.01 | ||||||||
| Clifton–Power | 0:300.01–0.00 | 0:350.10–0.00 | 0:580.10–0.00 | ||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Clifton–Dahlin | 0:380.00–0.08 | ||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Johnson | 0:310.00–0.06 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Clifton–Samuelsson | 0:530.00–0.07 | 0:320.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Jokiharju–Johnson | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 31 | 28:17 | 0:55 | 2:11 | 10 | 1 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 24 | 25:31 | 1:04 | 1:25 | 2 | 0 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 25 | 25:09 | 1:00 | 1:33 | 3 | 3 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 28 | 23:54 | 0:51 | 2:10 | 5 | 2 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 29 | 20:43 | 0:43 | 1:15 | 3 | 7 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 26 | 20:18 | 0:47 | 1:44 | 3 | 2 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 28 | 19:58 | 0:43 | 1:17 | 3 | 7 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 19:47 | 0:52 | 1:52 | 2 | 2 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 23 | 19:23 | 0:51 | 2:12 | 0 | 1 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 26 | 19:04 | 0:44 | 1:40 | 2 | 6 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 23 | 18:36 | 0:49 | 1:44 | 6 | 0 |
 Calvin de HaanTBL | 24 | 18:34 | 0:46 | 1:15 | 2 | 4 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 23 | 18:33 | 0:48 | 1:51 | 2 | 2 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 26 | 18:29 | 0:43 | 1:59 | 2 | 7 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 21 | 18:02 | 0:52 | 2:05 | 5 | 1 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 23 | 17:58 | 0:47 | 1:10 | 3 | 6 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 24 | 17:16 | 0:43 | 1:37 | 6 | 0 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 21 | 16:19 | 0:47 | 1:19 | 2 | 4 |
 Connor CliftonBUF | 23 | 16:13 | 0:42 | 1:22 | 2 | 2 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 20 | 15:39 | 0:47 | 1:08 | 3 | 2 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 21 | 15:37 | 0:45 | 1:02 | 4 | 2 |
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 21 | 15:10 | 0:43 | 1:13 | 1 | 2 |
 Tyler MotteTBL | 20 | 14:32 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 0 | 4 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 19 | 14:08 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 1 | 1 |
 Ryan JohnsonBUF | 22 | 13:58 | 0:38 | 1:27 | 4 | 1 |
 Max CrozierTBL | 18 | 13:32 | 0:45 | 1:34 | 0 | 1 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 20 | 13:24 | 0:40 | 1:11 | 4 | 0 |
 Conor ShearyTBL | 18 | 12:40 | 0:42 | 1:15 | 2 | 1 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 12 | 12:12 | 1:01 | 1:35 | 1 | 0 |
 Michael EyssimontTBL | 18 | 11:28 | 0:38 | 1:28 | 1 | 2 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 17 | 11:11 | 0:39 | 0:59 | 2 | 1 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 12 | 11:07 | 0:56 | 1:32 | 1 | 0 |
 Luke GlendeningTBL | 17 | 10:27 | 0:37 | 1:32 | 0 | 5 |
 Victor OlofssonBUF | 11 | 9:56 | 0:54 | 1:27 | 2 | 0 |
 Waltteri MerelaTBL | 11 | 7:29 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 0 | 1 |
 Austin WatsonTBL | 10 | 6:36 | 0:40 | 1:03 | 0 | 0 |